According to Nate Silver, Romney seems to be losing some voters in South Carolina. This might be, in part, due to the attacks on Romney by his opponents. The attacks are on how Romney likes firing people, yet more chilling is Gingrich's new ad that lists Romney's doings with Bain and the state of Massachusetts.
Looking at Silver's graph Romney is on a downward trail, meaning, Romney will keep losing supporters according to the model. Although, Silver does warn that his model is premature; so, therefore, his polling model requires more data points to give a reasonable 'guess' on whether Romney will take South Carolina.
Seeing as how Silver gives a momentum booster in his analysis, I'll give a qualitative reading on how Gingrich is faring because according to Gingrich himself he "...is well liked in the South." There is one aspect haunting Gingrich and it is that historically President's come from the pool of "150," those being senators (100 Senators) and governors (50). Men from the pool of the "150" that have historically been nominated to become President. One of the few anomalies was Gerald Ford (from the House of Representatives) who became President when Nixon step down. Thus, by historical precedence Santorum could win, however, it seems like Ron Paul is getting support from independents--which may give him the nomination.
To see whether Romney can beat Obama one can look to California where recently Meg Whitman lost the race to Jerry Brown. Perhaps, the race for the governor's seat in California is a useful presage of what will come in November because California politics showed that people don't want someone from the private sector such as Whitman, who is now the President and CEO of Hewlett Packard.
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