Polls on the Presidential Race: Romney vs. Obama

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I'm not sure how many people are familiar with Nate Silver, the NYTimes' Columnist/blogger who analyzes polls, but today he posted an article that argues that President Obama is the favorite to win the election in November. It's important to note how the blogger makes his prediction, so here's a blueprint as to how he works: the way that Silver makes his prediction is by taking an average of all polls leading up to an election wherein he assigns a certain "weight" to each pollster, that is, according to each pollster's methodology and its "house effects," meaning the model takes into account a pollster's credibility and any bias a pollster has. The model also includes other variables that affect the presidential race such as: Economic Indicators, State Polls, and National Polls. Needless to say, Silver does a better job at explaining his forecast model; so, I won't try to do what he does best.

What's more important from Silver's number crunching are his findings because traditionally candidates have gotten, on average, about a four point boost from their Convention. In regards to the Republican National Convention, Romney is not faring too well. In fact, after Silver averaged out the polls released after the RNC he found that Romney is just below average with a 3.1 point bounce. Moreover, when the columnist compares Romney's poll numbers Romney is likely to lose the race in November.

Romney fans might be disappointed if President Obama gets a good bounce from the Democratic National Convention. In fact, if the President gets a bounce above 4 points, then Romney will have something to worry about. For anyone interested in betting who's going to be president your chances might be with Obama.