Update on Presidential Polls

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Nate Silver just published an article on his blog wherein he points out the state of the Presidential race. Three national tracking polls released their findings on the race: Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos with Obama leading with Gallup and Ipsos, but losing in Rasmussen's poll. The case that Silver makes is that the polls were conducted in the interim period between conventions, meaning, that the pollsters are giving data that looks bad for Romney. In fact, what makes matters worse is that Rasmussen and Gallup have given Romney an edge because of their "house effects," so that means the race looks to be heading towards an Obama victory (The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Obama winning the Electoral College with 314 votes, the Popular Race with 51.3%, and the probability that the President wins re-election is 78.1%).